LEAD-TIME STRESS TEST

Lead Time Risk

Build end-to-end lead time and compare the baseline with a transparent conservative scenario.

Processed locally in your browser. Your planning data is not uploaded.
01

Components

Use expected days and a defensible conservative bound.

ComponentExpectedConservative
days
days
days
days
days
days
days
days
days
days
days
days
days
days
days
days
days
days
Used to calculate required order date.
02

Result

Baseline, conservative bound, and buffer.

Your result will appear here.

Enter the assumptions, then calculate to see the answer, interpretation and next check.

Methodology, assumptions and limitations
Baseline = Σ expected days · Conservative = Σ high days

Risk buffer is the difference between scenarios. Required order date subtracts the conservative scenario from the need-by date.

Important limitation

The conservative scenario is not P90 or a confidence interval. It is the sum of entered bounds and does not model correlation between components.